Mayoral showdown gets many people out to cast their ballots early.
Posted: May 6, 2011 - 12:00am
By Jim Schoettler, Timothy J. Gibbons
If current trends continue, by the beginning of next week more early and absentee votes will be cast in Jacksonville's runoff election than were submitted during the entire two-week early-voting period before the city's first municipal election in March.
At the end of the fourth day of early voting Thursday, 27,522 ballots had been cast, up about 85 percent from the last election.
Absentee ballots are up 89 percent; early votes are up 80 percent. Voting at early polling places in the Gateway, Regency and Highland areas have more than doubled.
"What you're seeing now is the supporters going out and following through with their votes," said Supervisor of Elections Jerry Holland. "They're not going to change their mind."
The first election, which featured six candidates vying for the mayor's seat plus a host of other races, saw fewer than 30 percent of registered voters participating. The low turnout, combined with the ability of Alvin Brown and Mike Hogan to energize their bases, set up the confrontation that will be decided May 17.
Of the 152,505 votes cast in the first election, 43,074 came in before Election Day.
It's unclear who benefits from high turnout this time: Both votes cast at early polling places, which traditionally favor Democrats, and absentee votes, which break Republican, have seen a surge.
Hogan pollster John Libby said his candidate has done well in areas where he has traditionally run strong and picked up support in the first election; and some areas that would likely favor Brown also have shown an uptick.
"I'm very encouraged where we're sitting in terms of the ratios and knowing some of the demographics," Libby said. "But it's a long way from being over."
Brown's campaign saw the surge as an indication that its message is getting through. "It's a testimony to the strength and endurance of Alvin Brown," said his campaign manager, Craig Kirby.
Voters are now paying attention to the race, Kirby said, and are faced with a clear choice as to who to support.
Narrowing the mayoral field helps raise the interest level of voters, said Stephen Baker, professor of political science at Jacksonville University.
"The fact that you have only two candidates per race means people can focus on them more easily," he said. "There's a tendency to postpone the decision with more candidates. Now, there should be fewer undecideds."
Whatever the reason for the surge at the polls, Holland said, it's not likely to end before Election Day.
"I think we'll see more interest," he said. "It's a good thing people are getting engaged in this."
timothy.gibbons@jacksonville.com, (904) 359-4103
jim.schoettler@jacksonville.com, (904) 359-4385
